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Computing Possible Futures$
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William B. Rouse

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780198846420

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2019

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198846420.001.0001

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Exploring Possible Futures

Exploring Possible Futures

Chapter:
(p.169) Chapter 10 Exploring Possible Futures
Source:
Computing Possible Futures
Author(s):

William B. Rouse

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198846420.003.0010

This chapter discusses the nature of exploring possible futures, not in terms of case studies, but with a higher-level view of the overall process. Six themes—investments, stakeholders, change, decisions, design, and prediction—are reflected in most of the key points in this book. Clearly, exploring possible futures concerns investments in pursuing these futures involving multiple stakeholders and significant change. Models are employed to frame decisions, assess alternative designs, and make predictions about what might happen. Typical explorations involve planning new generations of existing product lines and new application domains for existing technology capabilities, assessing technology options for enabling new offerings, and addressing major enterprise challenges. Explorations should begin by focusing on desirability in terms of the “preference space” of major stakeholders. At the same time, avoid consideration of feasibility in the sense of what is achievable in the “physical space” of the domain of interest.

Keywords:   theme, investment, stakeholder, change, decision, design, prediction, exploration, desirability, feasibility

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