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Productivity and the Bonus Culture$
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Andrew Smithers

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780198836117

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2019

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198836117.001.0001

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Other Influences on Growth

Other Influences on Growth

Chapter:
(p.38) 6 Other Influences on Growth
Source:
Productivity and the Bonus Culture
Author(s):

Andrew Smithers

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198836117.003.0006

Productivity and demography have been the major determinants of growth and this will continue unless there are significant favourable changes in unemployment, hours worked per person and participation rates. These three variables are not, at least in combination, likely to change in a way which will help growth. Unemployment is very low by historic standards and unlikely to be able to fall further without causing problems through the impact on inflation and inflationary expectations. Hours worked tend to rise as incomes per head rise and are thus unlikely to help. Participation rates should improve as those over 65 become more willing to work, but the improvement tends to move cyclically with unemployment where further falls are unlikely. The past help provided by the increase in female participation seems to have run its course. On balance little help to growth rates from these three variables in combination is likely.

Keywords:   Recession, cyclical, demand, working hours, growth, working age, participation rates, unemployment

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