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Effective Conservation ScienceData Not Dogma$
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Peter Kareiva, Michelle Marvier, and Brian Silliman

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780198808978

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: December 2017

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198808978.001.0001

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Planning for climate change without climate projections?

Planning for climate change without climate projections?

Chapter:
(p.135) Chapter 21 Planning for climate change without climate projections?
Source:
Effective Conservation Science
Author(s):

Joshua J. Lawler

Julia Michalak

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198808978.003.0021

This chapter explores the relative uncertainty associated with popular approaches to conservation planning in the face of climate change. Concern about uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections and associated ecological impacts have led many in the conservation community to avoid climate modeling, and instead favor forecast-free approaches that involve increasing connectivity and protecting “nature’s stage” (geophysical settings) to produce climate-smart conservation plans. A comparison of each of these approaches reveals that the uncertainties associated with connectivity modeling and mapping geophysical settings can be as large, if not larger than, the uncertainties associated with climate-change projections. Whereas the uncertainties of climate forecasts are widely appreciated, the same cannot be said for the approaches that avoid climate forecasts. It is not the case that there is one best approach. The answer to uncertainty is to seek robust conservation plans that work regardless of which approach is taken.

Keywords:   climate change, conservation planning, uncertainty, connectivity, protecting nature’s stage, geophysical settings

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