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Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa$
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Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo

Print publication date: 2018

Print ISBN-13: 9780198785811

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: April 2018

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198785811.001.0001

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Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda

Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda

Chapter:
(p.375) Chapter 18 Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda
Source:
Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author(s):

Luisa Charry

Pranav Gupta

Vimal Thakoor

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780198785811.003.0018

We develop a simple semi-structural model for the Rwandan economy to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a modified uncovered interest parity condition to capture key structural features of Rwanda’s economy and policy framework, such as the limited degree of capital mobility and managed floating regime. A filtration of the observed data through the model allows us to illustrate the contribution of various factors to inflation dynamics and its deviations from the inflation target. Our results, consistent with evidence for other countries in the region, suggest that food and oil prices as well as the exchange rate have accounted for the bulk of inflation dynamics in Rwanda.

Keywords:   Rwanda, monetary transmission mechanism, monetary policy, inflation, forecasting, semi-structural models, low-income countries, developing countries

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