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Central Banks into the BreachFrom Triumph to Crisis and the Road Ahead$
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Pierre L. Siklos

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780190228835

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2017

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780190228835.001.0001

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Moderation Before the Storm

Moderation Before the Storm

Chapter:
(p.1) 1 Moderation Before the Storm
Source:
Central Banks into the Breach
Author(s):

Pierre L. Siklos

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/oso/9780190228835.003.0001

This chapter provides an overview of the macroeconomic environment since 2000. The era is broken down into three periods: 2000–2006, 2007–2010, and 2011–present. Warnings of an imminent crisis were present before 2007, but generally they were ignored by self-satisfied policymakers. Pre-crisis, inflation control was the once rising and, seemingly, preeminent monetary policy strategy. A review, both pre- and post-GFC, of a wide variety of macroeconomic and financial indicators is included, with discussion of lesser known variables such as proxies for central bank communication and balance sheet indicators. These clearly enable us to identify interventions by central banks while also highlighting areas of continuing concern. In some respects (e.g. concerns about financial stability), everything has changed post-crisis, but in other respects (e.g. monetary policy strategy) fewer changes are apparent. The chapter concludes by arguing that there are reasons to be apprehensive about the current state of monetary policy and central banking.

Keywords:   global economy, central bank, asset price development, Great Recession, Great Moderation, macroprudential, headline inflation, emerging market economy, G8, Taylor Rule

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