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Who Wins?Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict$
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Patricia Sullivan

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199878338

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.001.0001

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Testing the Argument

Testing the Argument

Chapter:
(p.66) Chapter 4 Testing the Argument
Source:
Who Wins?
Author(s):

Patricia L. Sullivan

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.003.0004

This chapter explains how historical data is employed here to evaluate how well the theory previously developed—referred to as the war aims model—stacks up against alternative explanations of violent conflict outcomes. It begins by asking what we would expect to observe if the model accurately represents the primary determinants of war outcomes. It derives specific, falsifiable hypotheses from this theory and the competing theories described in Chapter 1. It then discusses the data brought to bear on the problem and how the concepts are operationalized and measured in the hypotheses.

Keywords:   armed conflict outcomes, historical data, war aims model, operationalization, measurement

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