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From Juvenile Delinquency to Adult CrimeCriminal Careers, Justice Policy and Prevention$
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Rolf Loeber and David P. Farrington

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199828166

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199828166.001.0001

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Prediction and Risk/Needs Assessments

Prediction and Risk/Needs Assessments

(p.150) 6 Prediction and Risk/Needs Assessments
From Juvenile Delinquency to Adult Crime

Robert D. Hoge

Gina Vincent

Laura Guy

Oxford University Press

The focus of the chapter is on available knowledge regarding the prediction of early adult offending from information available during the early juvenile years. Standardized screening and assessment tools for formulating these predictions are also reviewed. The chapter begins with a discussion of general issues regarding risk prediction and assessment, including dynamic risk factors (need factors) and protective or strength factors. This is followed by a summary of risk factors identified in the theoretical and empirical literatures as known to be associated with criminal activity. Technical issues in the conduct of risk assessments are discussed, followed by reviews of the major established juvenile and adult assessment tools. Two major conclusions emerge from the chapter. First, while we have considerable knowledge of the risk and need factors associated with adolescent offending and offending during the adult years, information about the prediction of the initiation and desistance from criminal activities specifically for the early adult years (roughly 18 to 25) is lacking. Second, while a number of standardized screening and assessment tools demonstrate sound psychometric properties in the prediction of adolescent offending and adult offending, relatively less information is available regarding the ability of the adolescent measures to predict early adult offending. The chapter concludes with a set of recommendations for researchers and practitioners.

Keywords:   criminogenic risk factors, criminogenic need factors, protective factors, risk assessment, risk management, developmental criminology, assessment, ethics

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