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HeuristicsThe Foundations of Adaptive Behavior$
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Gerd Gigerenzer, Ralph Hertwig, and Thorsten Pachur

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780199744282

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199744282.001.0001

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Psychological Models of Professional Decision Making

Psychological Models of Professional Decision Making

Chapter:
(p.581) Chapter 28 Psychological Models of Professional Decision Making
Source:
Heuristics
Author(s):

Mandeep K. Dhami

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199744282.003.0028

People are often expected to make decisions based on all of the relevant information, weighted and combined appropriately. Under many conditions, however, people use heuristic strategies that depart from this ideal. This chapter tested the ability of two models to predict bail decisions made by judges in two courts. In both courts, a simple heuristic proved to be a better predictor of judicial decisions than a more complex model that instantiated the principles of due process. Specifically, judges were “passing the buck” because they relied on decisions made by the police, prosecution, and previous bench. Problematically, these earlier decisions were not significantly related to case characteristics. These findings have implications for the types of models researchers use to capture professional decision-making policies.

Keywords:   decision making, fast and frugal trees, legal, experts, heuristics

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