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The Laws of BeliefRanking Theory and Its Philosophical Applications$
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Wolfgang Spohn

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199697502

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697502.001.0001

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 Supposing, Updating, and Reflection

 Supposing, Updating, and Reflection

Chapter:
(p.185) 9 Supposing, Updating, and Reflection
Source:
The Laws of Belief
Author(s):

Wolfgang Spohn

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697502.003.0009

Like conditional probability, conditional belief is not easy to understand. The chapter argues that conditional belief is best interpreted as suppositional belief. This raises the question of how supposition relates to updating and conditionalization as presented in chapter 5. The question leads to a ranking-theoretic treatment of auto-epistemology. Hence, the reflection principle is discussed and then shown to be equivalent to an auto-epistemological conditionalization rule that subsumes ordinary conditionalization. In this perspective, updating turns out to be an auto-epistemic version of supposing.

Keywords:   conditional belief, supposition, updating, auto-epistemology, reflection principle

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