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Bayesian Theory and Applications$
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Paul Damien, Petros Dellaportas, Nicholas G. Polson, and David A. Stephens

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780199695607

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199695607.001.0001

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Observables and models: exchangeability and the inductive argument

Observables and models: exchangeability and the inductive argument

Chapter:
(p.3) 1 Observables and models: exchangeability and the inductive argument
Source:
Bayesian Theory and Applications
Author(s):

Micheal Goldstein

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199695607.003.0001

This chapter first provides an elementary and self-contained account of the notion of exchangeability and the derivation of Bruno de Finetti's representation theorem, which shows how to construct operational statistical models based strictly on judgements over observables. It then considers the relevance of this representation to real world inferences, and introduces a second collection of exchangeability judgements which are necessary in order that the inductive argument, when applied to inferences over models so constructed, also has an operational real world counterpart.

Keywords:   exchangeability judgements, Bruno de Finetti, representation theorem, statistical models, Bayesian statistics

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