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The Oxford Companion to the Economics of South Africa$
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Haroon Bhorat, Alan Hirsch, Ravi Kanbur, and Mthuli Ncube

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780199689248

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: March 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199689248.001.0001

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Capturing South Africa’s demographic dividend

Capturing South Africa’s demographic dividend

(p.231) 28 Capturing South Africa’s demographic dividend
The Oxford Companion to the Economics of South Africa

Morné Oosthuizen

Oxford University Press

This chapter examines the impact of demographic change on South Africa’s economic growth. Estimates show two positive periods of the first demographic dividend in South Africa. The first began in 1977—after more than 25 years of negative dividend as a result of relatively high population growth—and peaked at over one percentage point during the early 1990s. The dividend then turned negative in 2007. The second period of positive dividend is expected to last from 2014 to beyond 2050, but is more moderate, raising the per capita economic growth rate by up to around 0.4 percentage points per annum at its peak around 2030.

Keywords:   demographic aspects, demography, lifecycle deficit, economic lifecycle

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