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Public Policy InvestmentPriority-Setting and Conditional Representation In British Statecraft$
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Anthony Bertelli and Peter John

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780199663972

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199663972.001.0001

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Policy Investment Performance in Britain, 1971–2000

Policy Investment Performance in Britain, 1971–2000

(p.124) 8 Policy Investment Performance in Britain, 1971–2000
Public Policy Investment

Anthony M. Bertelli

Peter John

Oxford University Press

This chapter provides statistical evidence for four important aspects of public policy investment and conditional representation. The accumulation of policy capital is associated with better government results in by-election contests. When the Prime Minister is not much more popular than the government, then policy investment returns have positive electoral impact, but when the leader substantially outshines his government in the public eye, more policy investment can be counterproductive. The Government Performance Index (GPI) is developed to capture the performance of public policy investment strategies; it tempers portfolio return by the risk governments bear and the clarity of the public’s reactions to competence factor shocks. While better GPI relates to improved government electoral rewards, substantial changes to manifesto priorities are associated with no changes in electoral reward.

Keywords:   Government Performance Index, by-election, policy investment strategies, electoral reward

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