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Health Impact AssessmentPast Achievement, Current Understanding, and Future Progress$
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John Kemm

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199656011

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199656011.001.0001

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Quantitative assessment

Quantitative assessment

(p.25) Chapter 3 Quantitative assessment
Health Impact Assessment

John Kemm

Oxford University Press

This chapter explores quantitative methods of assessing impacts in HIA. It suggests causal diagrams should be used as a structure for assessment. Dose response curves and exposure estimates can then be used to estimate impacts through each causal path. Evidence of association comes from epidemiological study but it is necessary to decide if the association is causal. It is important to remember that uncertainty attaches to every estimate and chaos theory suggests that the degree to which it is possible to predict is limited. Models can be used to help with quantitative predictions. The advantages and disadvantages of combining different types of impact into a single metric such as QALYS are discussed.

Keywords:   quantitative assessment, causal diagrams, dose response curves, exposure, association, chaos theory, models, comparative risk assessment

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