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Organizing Democratic ChoiceParty Representation Over Time$
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Ian Budge, Michael McDonald, Paul Pennings, and Hans Keman

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199654932

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199654932.001.0001

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The Dynamics of Divergence: Ideology, Factionalism, and Representation

The Dynamics of Divergence: Ideology, Factionalism, and Representation

(p.90) 4 The Dynamics of Divergence: Ideology, Factionalism, and Representation (p.91)
Organizing Democratic Choice

Ian Budge

Hans Keman

Michael McDonald

Paul Pennings

Oxford University Press

This chapter approaches party position-taking from a new angle, viewing it as an internal factional process rather than as strategic decisions by a unitary agent. It assumes that parties are ideologically based and pursue their own policies: that they are internally factionalized: and operating under high levels of uncertainty. Using these assumptions, the integrated theory requires two basic pieces of information to predict parties’ policy moves: past policy shift and past vote share. When a party loses votes, it will reverse its leftward or rightward move. When a party gains votes, it will continue in the same direction. However, a party will not make two consecutive moves in the same direction, even after a vote gain, owing to factional constraints. These are the core predictions of the integrated dynamic theory we presented below, which are formalized as a successful computer simulation. This has important consequences for political representation considered at the end of the chapter.

Keywords:   party divergence, party policy movement, factionalism, ideology, simulations, representational performance

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