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Semi-PresidentialismSub-Types And Democratic Performance$
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Robert Elgie

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780199585984

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199585984.001.0001

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Varieties of Semi-Presidentialism and Democratic Survival

Varieties of Semi-Presidentialism and Democratic Survival

(p.43) 3 Varieties of Semi-Presidentialism and Democratic Survival

Robert Elgie

Oxford University Press

The first part of this chapter identifies the set of semi-presidential democracies since 1919 so that their performance can be evaluated. The second section provides some descriptive statistics to show both that there is prima facie evidence that president-parliamentary democracies have been more likely to collapse than premier-presidential democracies and that this is the case even when controlling for the endogenous selection of institutional structures. A controlled statistical test of the relative performance of the two subtypes of semi-presidential democracies is then conducted, using a Cox proportional hazards model that was developed by Petra Schleiter. The results show unequivocally that concerns about the perils of president-parliamentarism are empirically justified.

Keywords:   semi-presidentialism, democracies, democratic survival, democratic collapse, Cox proportional hazards model

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