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Bioinvasions and GlobalizationEcology, Economics, Management, and Policy$
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Charles Perrings, Harold Mooney, and Mark Williamson

Print publication date: 2009

Print ISBN-13: 9780199560158

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2010

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199560158.001.0001

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Climate and Invasive Species: The Limits to Climate Information

Climate and Invasive Species: The Limits to Climate Information

(p.30) Chapter 3 Climate and Invasive Species: The Limits to Climate Information
Bioinvasions and Globalization

Mark New

Carol McSweeney

Oxford University Press

This chapter describes the current state-of-the-science in observational climate dataset development and in climate change modeling, and assesses the ability of this science to support projections that are useful for assessing the effects of climate change on invasive alien species (IAS) risk. A large weight of empirical evidence has shown that climate is a strong predictor of actual and potential distributions of species, both native and alien invasive. This relationship forms the basis for climate-envelope species distribution models that are used to predict potential ranges of IAS in the present day, and also both IAS and native species under climate change. These correlative models have many well-documented limitations, but in the absence of more detailed data and improved methods to calibrate process-based models more rapidly, we are hampered in our ability to develop process-based models at the species level. Thus, correlative models will remain a tool for projecting potential ranges of IAS under climate change, perhaps with enhancement to account for dispersal and other dynamics.

Keywords:   climate change modeling, biological invasions, climate models

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