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Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Preventions$
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Charles H. Anderton and Jurgen Brauer

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780199378296

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199378296.001.0001

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Understanding Civil War Violence through Military Intelligence

Understanding Civil War Violence through Military Intelligence

Mining Suspects’ Records from the Vietnam War

Chapter:
(p.536) 23 Understanding Civil War Violence through Military Intelligence
Source:
Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Preventions
Author(s):

Rex W. Douglass

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199378296.003.0023

Military intelligence is underutilized in the study of civil war violence. Declassified records are hard to acquire and difficult to explore with the standard econometrics toolbox. I investigate a contemporary government database of civilians targeted during the Vietnam War. The data are detailed, with up to 45 attributes recorded for 73,712 individual civilian suspects. I employ an unsupervised machine learning approach of cleaning, variable selection, dimensionality reduction, and clustering. I find support for a simplifying typology of civilian targeting that distinguishes different kinds of suspects and different kinds targeting methods. The typology is robust, successfully clustering both government actors and rebel departments into groups that mirror their known functions. The exercise highlights methods for dealing with high-dimensional, found conflict data. It also illustrates how aggregating measures of political violence masks a complex underlying empirical data generating process as well as a complex institutional reporting process.

Keywords:   civil war, civilian targeting, machine learning, data mining, Vietnam War

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