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Paper Tigers, Hidden DragonsFirms and the Political Economy of China's Technological Development$
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Douglas B. Fuller

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780198777205

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198777205.001.0001

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Conclusion

Conclusion

China’s Economic Future and the Future Role of Hybrids

Chapter:
(p.224) Conclusion
Source:
Paper Tigers, Hidden Dragons
Author(s):

Douglas B. Fuller

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198777205.003.0010

The conclusion addresses the questions of whither China and what role hybrids will play in China’s future. There are three scenarios for China’s next decade: thorough economic reform in line with the Third Plenum’s vision; muddling through; or a severe economic crisis brought on by lack of reform. Each scenario in turn has implications for what role hybrids will play in the economy generally and in industrial policy. Reforming the economy would lessen the need for hybrids dramatically and the firms would become largely indistinguishable from domestic firms. In the other two scenarios, hybrids would still be needed, but politics would determine whether they would still have the institutional space to participate in China’s economy.

Keywords:   China, middle-income trap, debt limit, future, hybrids, industrial policy

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