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Global EnergyIssues, Potentials, and Policy Implications$
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Paul Ekins, Mike Bradshaw, and Jim Watson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780198719526

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198719526.001.0001

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Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction

Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction

Chapter:
(p.499) 24 Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction
Source:
Global Energy
Author(s):

Christophe McGlade

Olivier Dessens

Gabrial Anandarajah

Paul Ekins

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198719526.003.0025

This chapter examines the feasibility of limiting the average global temperature rise, using the latest version of the TIAM-UCL global integrated assessment model. Given the continuing delay in implementing a global agreement on GHG emission reduction, we first examine the window of opportunity for continuing to increase emissions while still limiting the average surface temperature rise. The chapter constructs a number of specific scenarios leading to different long-term temperature increases to explore the resource and technology needs implied in each. It focuses in particular on the dynamics of coal-to-gas switching, and on the decarbonization of the electricity sector. The differences in mitigation and costs between high-, middle-, and low-income regions are also discussed. Finally, the chapter compares the rates of technology deployment required in the emissions mitigation scenarios with deployment rates observed historically.

Keywords:   integrated assessment modelling, mitigating climate change, emissions reduction, low-carbon technologies

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