Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
SARSA case study in emerging infections$
Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content.

Angela McLean, Robert May, John Pattison, and Robin Weiss

Print publication date: 2005

Print ISBN-13: 9780198568193

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2007

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198568193.001.0001

Show Summary Details
Page of

PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2020. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 19 February 2020

Dynamics of modern epidemics

Dynamics of modern epidemics

Chapter:
(p.81) CHAPTER 11 Dynamics of modern epidemics
Source:
SARS
Author(s):

Dirk Brockmann

Lars Hufnagel

Theo Geisel

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198568193.003.0011

The rapid global spread of SARS demonstrated the threat that an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. This chapter introduces a novel, probabilistic model to describe the worldwide spread of a novel infectious agent. Using SARS as an example, it is shown that forecasting the geographical spread of epidemics is possible. The model describes local infection dynamics between individuals and stochastic transport across a worldwide network that accounts for both national and international civil aviation traffic. Simulations of the SARS outbreak are in good agreement with published case reports. The model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future emerging infections. The performance of different control strategies can be compared. Simulations show that a rapid, focussed reaction is essential to inhibit the global spread of epidemics.

Keywords:   infectious agent, epidemic, global spread, infection dynamics, aviation

Oxford Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.

Please, subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.

To troubleshoot, please check our FAQs , and if you can't find the answer there, please contact us .