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The Development of Persistent Criminality$
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Joanne Savage

Print publication date: 2009

Print ISBN-13: 9780195310313

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2009

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195310313.001.0001

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Group-Based Trajectory Modeling of Externalizing Behavior Problems from Childhood through Adulthood: Exploring Discrepancies in the Empirical Findings

Group-Based Trajectory Modeling of Externalizing Behavior Problems from Childhood through Adulthood: Exploring Discrepancies in the Empirical Findings

Chapter:
(p.288) CHAPTER 14 Group-Based Trajectory Modeling of Externalizing Behavior Problems from Childhood through Adulthood: Exploring Discrepancies in the Empirical Findings
Source:
The Development of Persistent Criminality
Author(s):

Manfred H.M. van Dulmen

Elizabeth A. Goncy

Andrea Vest

Daniel J. Flannery

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195310313.003.0014

The purpose of this chapter is to investigate whether there are systematic factors that may help explain the large discrepancy in findings from group-based trajectory modeling studies of offending. Inspired by both theoretical work (Moffitt, 1993) and advancements in statistical methodology (e.g., Nagin & Tremblay, 1999), scholars of the development of antisocial behavior are increasingly studying the various trajectories of antisocial behavior from childhood through adulthood. Ample evidence suggests that there are at least two different trajectories (childhood-onset and adolescent-onset) but findings from various studies suggest that there are anywhere from two to seven trajectories of antisocial behavior. This chapter identifies several methodological factors that might be associated with finding various numbers of trajectories, and conduct a systematic review of studies to see if this is the case. It finds that the conceptualization of externalizing behavior problems, the number of assessments, the length of follow-up, the gender of subjects, and whether studies employed multimethod/multiinformant designs are all associated with the number of trajectories identified.

Keywords:   offending trajectory, aggression, criminal careers, methodology, latent-class analysis, latent class growth curve analysis, growth mixture modeling, semiparametric group-based modeling

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