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The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, IIICurrent Perspectives and Future Directions$
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Lawrence E. Blume and Steven N. Durlauf

Print publication date: 2005

Print ISBN-13: 9780195162592

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195162592.001.0001

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The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations

The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations

Chapter:
(p.5) The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations
Source:
The Economy as an Evolving Complex System, III
Author(s):

Christopher D. Carroll

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195162592.003.0002

This chapter considers a model in which individual actors learn about properties of the macroeconomic via the diffusion of forecasts by a small set of agents, interpreted as professional forecasters. This type of expectational structure is shown to replicate observed patterns of unemployment and inflation expectations as measured in survey data.

Keywords:   macroeconomic, forecasts, expectational structure, unemployment, inflation

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