This chapter describes how to select probability estimates for a decision analysis and how to justify the choice of probabilities. Because decision analytic models are often the basis for cost-effectiveness analysis, the information on estimation of probabilities information is directly relevant to cost-effectiveness analysis. The chapter explains why probability estimation should be based on systematic review. It briefly discusses Monte Carlo simulation and the confidence profile, a Baysian method, as methods for estimating uncertainty in the expected outcome of a decision analysis.
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