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Meta-Analysis, Decision Analysis, and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis$
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Diana B. Petitti

Print publication date: 1999

Print ISBN-13: 9780195133646

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2009

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195133646.001.0001

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Estimating Probabilities

Estimating Probabilities

Chapter:
(p.159) 10 Estimating Probabilities
Source:
Meta-Analysis, Decision Analysis, and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Author(s):

Diana B. Petitti

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195133646.003.10

This chapter describes how to select probability estimates for a decision analysis and how to justify the choice of probabilities. Because decision analytic models are often the basis for cost-effectiveness analysis, the information on estimation of probabilities information is directly relevant to cost-effectiveness analysis. The chapter explains why probability estimation should be based on systematic review. It briefly discusses Monte Carlo simulation and the confidence profile, a Baysian method, as methods for estimating uncertainty in the expected outcome of a decision analysis.

Keywords:   decision analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, probability estimation, Monte Carlo simulation, confidence profile, Bayesian

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