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Trade—The Engine of Growth in East Asia$
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Peter C. Y. Chow and Mitchell H. Kellman

Print publication date: 1993

Print ISBN-13: 9780195078954

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: October 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195078954.001.0001

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The Next-Tier NICs: Tomorrow's Miracles

The Next-Tier NICs: Tomorrow's Miracles

(p.145) 10 The Next-Tier NICs: Tomorrow's Miracles
Trade—The Engine of Growth in East Asia

Peter C. Y. Chow

Mitchell H. Kellman

Oxford University Press

A general concern among development economists is whether there will be another group of “baby tigers” in the world economy. This chapter examines the prospects of the next tier of NICs—notably the ASEAN countries—by surveying their records of trade growth using various aspects of the trade performance of Korea and Taiwan as benchmarks. Using the RCA similarity criteria, this chapter asserts that the “most likely to succeed” are Thailand and Malaysia to become the candidates of the next tier of the NICs. Further, an analysis of the relationships between ASEAN patterns of revealed comparative advantage with those of the two city-states, Hong Kong and Singapore, also provided the same conclusions. While Thailand leads, evidence shows that Indonesia is clearly lagging in the race to become tomorrow's NICs. The latter part of this chapter assesses the dynamic trade expansion in ASEAN countries.

Keywords:   development economists, world economy, ASEAN countries, RCA, trade growth, NICs, dynamic trade expansion

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