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Altered StatesChanging Populations, Changing Parties, and the Transformation of the American Political Landscape$
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Thomas M. Holbrook

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780190269128

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269128.001.0001

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Demographic and Political Change

Demographic and Political Change

(p.153) 6 Demographic and Political Change
Altered States

Thomas M. Holbrook

Oxford University Press

This chapter summarizes key findings and presents some final thoughts. This book examines two related propositions. The first is that there has been a shift in power over time that has resulted in something like a Democratic “lock” on the Electoral College. The second is that changes in state demographic characteristics—in particular changes in the racial and ethnic composition of key states—have moved some states from the Republican to the Democratic column. Evidence presented in the preceding five chapters shows that while there is some truth to both propositions, the full story is more complicated. The chapter also considers trends in key population characteristics over the last few election cycles and identifies states in which the trends favor one party over the other. Based on these trends, we can get a sense of the potential for either party to realize gains in relative strength in the future

Keywords:   Democrats, Republicans, Electoral College, state demographic characteristics, ethnic composition, racial composition

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