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Altered StatesChanging Populations, Changing Parties, and the Transformation of the American Political Landscape$
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Thomas M. Holbrook

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780190269128

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269128.001.0001

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Changing Political Context and Changing State Outcomes

Changing Political Context and Changing State Outcomes

(p.118) 5 Changing Political Context and Changing State Outcomes
Altered States

Thomas M. Holbrook

Oxford University Press

This chapter examines another way in which group characteristics influence election outcomes, which is by interacting with the broader political environment to produce different effects on outcomes in different political contexts. It revisits the underlying contextual argument and specifies a process that focuses on changes in party elite behavior, changes in popular perceptions of party elites, and changes in patterns of group-based determinants of state outcomes. It then provides empirical support for the model and demonstrates the ways in which the effects of demographic and political variables on election outcomes have evolved over time. Finally, it uses the changes in relationships over time to get a sense of how much these changes have affected outcomes and to assess the magnitude of these effects compared to the effects of changes in demographic characteristics.

Keywords:   population characteristics, election outcome, political party, party elite, demographic change, political polarization

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