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Altered StatesChanging Populations, Changing Parties, and the Transformation of the American Political Landscape$
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Thomas M. Holbrook

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780190269128

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269128.001.0001

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Compositional Change and Political Change

Compositional Change and Political Change

(p.79) 4 Compositional Change and Political Change
Altered States

Thomas M. Holbrook

Oxford University Press

This chapter wades through the many conceptualizations of how group membership is likely to affect political support, offers some individual-level evidence from the 2012 election, and puts together a parsimonious model in which changes in party support at the state level are explained by changes in key state demographic characteristics. It considers some of the commonly cited sources of political change, such as changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the state electorates, as well as changes in socioeconomic and occupational status, indicators of cultural values, and state party identification and ideology. It identifies three important sources of political change in states: changes in the percentage of the state citizen voting-age population (CVAP) who are foreign born, changes in the pattern of internal migration among the CVAP, and changes in the percentage of state CVAP who are educated beyond a four-year college degree.

Keywords:   political change, political party, party support, group membership, voting pattern, state population, voting age population

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