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Interpreting Epidemiologic EvidenceConnecting Research to Applications$
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David A. Savitz and Gregory A. Wellenius

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780190243777

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2016

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190243777.001.0001

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Random Error

Random Error

(p.171) 12 Random Error
Interpreting Epidemiologic Evidence

David A. Savitz

Gregory A. Wellenius

Oxford University Press

Random error refers to the non-systematic reasons that estimated values deviate from the correct values. The processes that give rise to random error, either sampling or allocation across treatments, are not directly relevant to observational studies but provide the statistical framework for attempting to quantify the impact of random error. We suggest that random error should not take precedence over consideration of bias and argue against a formal interpretation of statistical significance testing. Confidence intervals provide an index of precision, and are more useful for quantifying random error in observational epidemiology. Multiple comparisons that result in identification of false positive associations due to random error can be minimized by a careful approach to data analysis and interpretation guided by subject matter knowledge. When data are explored without such guidance, as in exploratory studies examining large numbers of possible associations, interpretation of positive associations must be tempered.

Keywords:   Random error, estimated values, confidence intervals, false positives, observational studies

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