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The Future of the Euro$
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Matthias Matthijs and Mark Blyth

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780190233235

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: March 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190233235.001.0001

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Conclusion: The Future of the Euro

Conclusion: The Future of the Euro

Possible Futures, Risks, and Uncertainties

Chapter:
(p.249) 12 Conclusion: The Future of the Euro
Source:
The Future of the Euro
Author(s):

Matthias Matthijs

Mark Blyth

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190233235.003.0012

The book’s conclusion is unusual for an edited volume. Rather than simply rehearse all the arguments in short form, as conclusions normally do, this chapter teases out the observable implications of each of the arguments for the future of the euro going forward, and tries to make predictions on that basis. This chapter first compares the sequencing of political institution building between the European Union and the United States, and then moves on to note the most significant developments in the EU since the euro crisis, including the changing Franco-German alliance, the return of the North-South gap, the new dynamics in EU decision-making, and the legal implications of the euro going forward. It then applies a typology of “white, grey, and black swan” events that correspond to the observable implications and presents the possibility of each “swan” for charting the likely future of the euro over the next several years.

Keywords:   political institution building, white swan, grey swan, black swan, euro, Franco-German alliance, EU, United States

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