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On the CuspFrom Population Boom to Bust$
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Charles S. Pearson

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780190223915

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: August 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190223915.001.0001

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Demographic Transitions

Demographic Transitions

(p.99) Chapter 6 Demographic Transitions
On the Cusp

Charles S. Pearson

Oxford University Press

The demographic transition (DT) is the principal schema for explaining past and projected demographic variables. This chapter presents key statistics, notes and differentiates two demographic transition “waves,” explains population momentum and tempo and how uncertainty is managed in population projections, reviews demographic transition theories (unified growth and fertility decline), introduces the demographic bonus, and finally speculates on the end point, as birth rates worldwide trend toward below replacement rate levels. Going beyond the DT, the chapter introduces new approaches to demography including Monte Carlo techniques in projecting uncertain variables, and efforts to elevate data on educational attainment into the traditional demographic trio of numbers, sex, and age.

Keywords:   demographic transition, key statistics, two waves, momentum, tempo, uncertainty, unified growth theory, fertility decline theory, demographic bonus, replacement rate

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