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Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises$
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Jerome L. Stein

Print publication date: 2006

Print ISBN-13: 9780199280575

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2006

DOI: 10.1093/0199280576.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2019. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use. date: 17 October 2019

Asian crises: Theory, evidence, warning Signals 1

Asian crises: Theory, evidence, warning Signals 1

Chapter:
(p.215) 8 Asian crises: Theory, evidence, warning Signals1
Source:
Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises
Author(s):

Jerome L. Stein (Contributor Webpage)

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/0199280576.003.0008

The Asian financial crises were unexpected by the market and many countries in the region experienced it at about the same time. Drawing upon the theoretical analyses in chapters 2-4, an operational theory is provided to answer the following questions for the Asian countries: Was a currency crisis produced by an overvalued real exchange rate? Was a debt crisis produced by an “excessive/unsustainable” external debt? What was the interaction between the two? The models imply a set of objective, theoretically-based warning signals and empirical analysis allows the assessment of which countries were or were not highly vulnerable to shocks.

Keywords:   Asian crises, overvalued exchange rate, excessive debt, currency crises, debt crises, NATREX, stochastic optimal control, warning signals

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