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Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises$
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Jerome L. Stein

Print publication date: 2006

Print ISBN-13: 9780199280575

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2006

DOI: 10.1093/0199280576.001.0001

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The transition economies: A NATREX evaluation of research 1

The transition economies: A NATREX evaluation of research 1

Chapter:
(p.153) 6 The transition economies: A NATREX evaluation of research1
Source:
Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance, and Debt Crises
Author(s):

Jerome L. Stein (Contributor Webpage)

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/0199280576.003.0006

On the basis of the NATREX model, several key studies are evaluated to answer the questions: How can the trends in the real exchange rates of the transition economies of Eastern Europe be explained? What are sustainable and equilibrium real exchange rates, current account deficits, and net investment positions in the medium and in the long-run? What are the policy implications for the transition economies planning to join the Euro area? Neither the PPP nor the Balassa-Samuelson hypotheses can explain the data. Both the reduced form and structural equations of the NATREX model are consistent with the data for Hungary and the Czech Republic. The exchange rate behavior for Poland and Bulgaria also are explained by the NATREX model.

Keywords:   Central Europe, Eastern Europe, real exchange rates, current account deficits, purchasing power parity, Balassa-Samuelson effect, NATREX model, populist scenario, growth scenario, Bundesbank

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