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The Future of the Welfare StateCrisis Myths and Crisis Realities$
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Francis G. Castles

Print publication date: 2004

Print ISBN-13: 9780199270170

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2004

DOI: 10.1093/0199270171.001.0001

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Explaining Expenditure Outcomes

Explaining Expenditure Outcomes

(p.93) 5 Explaining Expenditure Outcomes
The Future of the Welfare State

Francis G. Castles (Contributor Webpage)

Oxford University Press

Uses statistical techniques to model the determinants of aggregate social expenditure change in 21 OECD countries over the period 1980 to 1998. The main focus is on testing hypotheses relating to the impact of economic globalization and the so-called ‘new politics’ of the welfare state. The analysis suggests that neither of these accounts is persuasive. Instead, the main factors shaping recent expenditure change appear to have been programme maturation, economic growth, deindustrialization and left partisan politics.

Keywords:   convergence, deindustrialization, downsizing, foreign direct investment, globalization, modelling outcomes, new politics, partisan impact, programme maturation, social expenditure

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