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The Politics of the Euro-ZoneStability or Breakdown?$
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Kenneth Dyson

Print publication date: 2000

Print ISBN-13: 9780199241651

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2003

DOI: 10.1093/0199241651.001.0001

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The Prospects for a Stable Euro‐Zone: A Strength–Strain Model

The Prospects for a Stable Euro‐Zone: A Strength–Strain Model

Chapter:
(p.169) 6. The Prospects for a Stable Euro‐Zone: A Strength–Strain Model
Source:
The Politics of the Euro-Zone
Author(s):

Kenneth Dyson (Contributor Webpage)

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/0199241651.003.0007

This chapter aims to identify the critical variables conditioning the vulnerability of the Euro‐zone to systemic breakdown. It outlines a strength–strain model of stability, which points to an apparent paradox in the Euro‐zone. Underlying the model is a conception of the operation of the Euro‐zone as being neither wholly deterministic nor wholly chaotic, but as exhibiting a fundamental order subject to random influences. The subtlety and complexity of causes and the potential for instability is far more difficult than many analysts, whether pro‐ or anti‐EMU, are prepared to allow. It is this element of randomness that calls for resort to a strength–strain model, which explicitly sets out to classify the variables conducive to stability and instability—in particular, those relating to historical memories, the professional ideologies of central bankers, and the culture of capitalism.

Keywords:   Euro‐zone, stability, strength–strain model

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