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Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?Essays in Econometric Methodology$
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David F. Hendry

Print publication date: 2000

Print ISBN-13: 9780198293545

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2003

DOI: 10.1093/0198293542.001.0001

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Interpreting Econometric Evidence: The Behaviour of Consumers' Expenditure in the United Kingdom

Interpreting Econometric Evidence: The Behaviour of Consumers' Expenditure in the United Kingdom

Chapter:
(p.231) 10 Interpreting Econometric Evidence: The Behaviour of Consumers' Expenditure in the United Kingdom
Source:
Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?
Author(s):

David F. Hendry (Contributor Webpage)

James E. H. Davidson

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/0198293542.003.0011

Updates and tests whether DHSY and HUS specifications encompass the rational‐expectations, permanent‐income model by eliminating contemporaneous income terms. Both reject that model and lead to an improved specification using only lagged information. The ‘feedback versus feedforward’ debate is confronted as an issue of interpretation of the implications of economic analysis, rather than its use or absence, especially for intertemporal optimization by economic agents.

Keywords:   DHSY, encompassing, feedback, feedforward, innovation errors, progressive research strategy, rational expectations, weak exogeneity

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