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Who Wins?Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict$

Patricia Sullivan

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199878338

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2012

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199878338.001.0001

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(p.135) Appendix to Chapter 4

(p.135) Appendix to Chapter 4

Source:
Who Wins?
Publisher:
Oxford University Press

Table A1. Post-WWII Major Power Military Interventions

MP

Target

Location

Initiation

Termination

FRN

Syrian rioters

Syria

2 Apr 1945

15 Apr 1946

FRN

rioting nationalists/villagers

Algeria

8 May 1945

31 May 1945

FRN

Viet Minh nationalists

Vietnam

1 Oct 1945

1 Apr 1946

UKG

Indonesian insurgents

Indonesia

1 Oct 1945

29 Nov 1946

RUS

Iranian government

Iran

12 Dec 1945

9 May 1946

RUS

Turkish government

Turkey

15 Mar 1946

5 Apr 1946

FRN

Lao Issara regime/rebels

Laos

17 Mar 1946

1 Oct 1946

FRN

Viet Minh nationalists

Vietnam

20 Nov 1946

7 May 1954

FRN

DMRM Rebels

Madagascar

29 Mar 1947

1 Dec 1948

UKG

Guatemalan army

BR Honduras

26 Feb 1948

5 Mar 1948

USA

Communist guerilla movement

Greece

28 Feb 1948

16 Oct 1949

UKG

MPLA (Communist insurgents)

Malaysia

16 Jun 1948

31 Jul 1960

RUS

West Berlin

E. Germany

22 Jun 1948

30 May 1949

UKG

Yemen

Aden

1 Mar 1949

31 Oct 1963

UKG

Shifta terrorists

Eritrea

3 Jan 1950

31 Aug 1951

CHN

Nationalist army

Hainan Island

18 Apr 1950

2 May 1950

CHN

Tibet

Tibet

1 May 1950

19 May 1951

USA

N. Korea (DPRK)

S. Korea

27 Jun 1950

1 Oct 1950

USA

N. Korea, China

N. Korea

1 Oct 1950

27 Jul 1953

CHN

United States/UN (15)

N. Korea

19 Oct 1950

24 Dec 1950

CHN

S. Korea/U.S./UN (15)

S. Korea

31 Dec 1950

27 Jul 1953

CHN

Chinese Nationalists

Burma

31 Jan 1951

31 Dec 1953

FRN

National Liberation Army

Tunisia

20 Jan 1952

19 Jun 1955

UKG

Mau Mau guerillas

Kenya

20 Oct 1952

19 Oct 1956

FRN

rioters

French Morocco

7 Dec 1952

31 Dec 1952

RUS

rioters

E. Germany

16 Jun 1953

17 Jun 1953

CHN

Nationalist army

Taiwan Strait

16 Jul 1953

17 Jul 1953

FRN

Moroccan Lib Army, rioters

French Morocco

15 Aug 1953

2 Mar 1956

UKG

PPP regime, rioters

British Guiana

6 Oct 1953

26 May 1966

CHN

Khampa guerilla groups

Tibet

1 Apr 1954

31 Dec 1973

CHN

ROC (Nationalist forces)

Taiwan Strait

3 Sep 1954

1 May 1955

CHN

ROC (Nationalist forces)

Taiwan Strait

3 Sep 1954

1 May 1955

USA

China

Taiwan

4 Sep 1954

1 May 1955

FRN

nationalist movements (FLN)

Algeria

1 Nov 1954

3 Jul 1962

UKG

EOKA

Cyprus

26 Nov 1955

19 Feb 1959

UKG

rioters

Bahrain

11 Mar 1956

1 Jan 1957

FRN

Tunisia/Algerian rebels

Tunisia

19 May 1956

26 Oct 1960

RUS

Rioters/ protesters

Poland

28 Jun 1956

29 Jun 1956

FRN

national liberation movement

Morocco

3 Jul 1956

30 Sep 1961

RUS

Rioters/ protesters

Poland

20 Oct 1956

24 Oct 1956

RUS

Imre Nagy & mass protesters

Hungary

24 Oct 1956

31 Mar 1958

UKG

Egyptian government

Egypt

31 Oct 1956

6 Nov 1956

FRN

insurgents

Morocco

13 Dec 1956

1 Feb 1957

FRN

UPC independence movement

French Cameroun

15 Dec 1957

1 Jan 1960

FRN

Moroccan Liberation Army

Spanish Sahara

24 Feb 1958

30 May 1958

USA

UAR (Syria); leftist insurgents

Lebanon

15 Jul 1958

24 Oct 1958

UKG

UAR; communist insurgents

Jordan

17 Jul 1958

29 Oct 1958

CHN

ROC (Nationalist forces)

Taiwan Strait

23 Aug 1958

19 Dec 1958

USA

China

Taiwan

23 Aug 1958

31 Dec 1958

CHN

Nepal

Nepal

22 Apr 1959

31 Jul 1960

FRN

UPC guerillas & rioters

Cameroun

12 Jan 1960

31 Dec 1962

USA

new Trujillista regime

Dominican Rep

3 Jun 1961

16 Nov 1961

UKG

rioters

Zanzibar

3 Jun 1961

28 Feb 1963

UKG

Iraqi Army

Kuwait

1 Jul 1961

19 Oct 1961

FRN

Tunis govt, army, demonstrators

Tunisia

18 Jul 1961

22 Jul 1961

CHN

India

India

2 Nov 1961

21 Nov 1962

USA

new Trujillista regime

Dominican Rep

16 Nov 1961

30 Jan 1962

USA

NVA and VietCong

Vietnam

1 Feb 1962

27 Jan 1973

USA

Pathet Lao, N. Vietnamese, PRC

Thailand

16 May 1962

23 Jul 1962

USA

USSR and Cuba (Castro)

Cuba

24 Oct 1962

28 Oct 1962

UKG

TNKU rebels (w/Indonesia)

Brunei

10 Dec 1962

31 May 1963

UKG

Indonesian army/guerillas

Malaysia

19 Apr 1963

19 May 1965

UKG

rioters from labor movement

Swaziland

13 Jun 1963

30 Nov 1966

UKG

Tribes in the Radfan

Yemen AR

3 Aug 1963

18 Apr 1965

FRN

opposition rioters

Congo (FR)

13 Aug 1963

17 Aug 1963

UKG

Turkish and Greek communities

Cyprus

17 Dec 1963

27 Mar 1964

UKG

Mutinying military troops

E. African states

25 Jan 1964

31 Jul 1964

FRN

coup leaders /provisional govt

Gabon

19 Feb 1964

31 Dec 1965

USA

NVA, VC, and Pathet Lao

Laos

30 Apr 1964

14 Aug 1973

UKG

NLF, FLOSY

South Arabia

25 Nov 1964

30 Nov 1967

USA

leftist opposition

Dominican Rep

28 Apr 1965

20 Sep 1966

UKG

S. Rhodesia (Zimbabwe)

Zambia

3 Dec 1965

30 Apr 1966

RUS

Yemen Royalists

Yemen AR

30 Nov 1967

15 Mar 1968

RUS

Dubcek government

Czechoslovakia

20 Aug 1968

17 Apr 1969

FRN

FROLINAT insurgents

Chad

28 Aug 1968

30 Aug 1971

RUS

China

China

2 Mar 1969

11 Sep 1969

CHN

USSR

China

1 May 1969

11 Sep 1969

UKG

IRA, PIRA, rioters

N. Ireland

1 Sep 1969

22 May 1998

UKG

Guatemalan army

Br. Honduras

1 Jan 1970

31 Dec 1973

RUS

Israel

Egypt

31 Mar 1970

7 Aug 1970

USA

Khmer Rouge

Cambodia

30 Apr 1970

14 Aug 1973

USA

Palestinian fedayeen, Syria

Turkey

10 Sep 1970

25 Sep 1970

RUS

rioters

Poland

15 Dec 1970

20 Dec 1970

RUS

Anya-Nya guerillas

Sudan

1 Jan 1971

31 Aug 1971

RUS

Iraqi Kurds

Iraq

15 Mar 1973

30 Mar 1975

CHN

Republic of Vietnam

China

15 Jan 1974

20 Jan 1974

RUS

UNITA, FNLA opposition

Angola

14 Nov 1975

31 Dec 1988

UKG

Guatemalan army

Br. Honduras

7 Jul 1977

7 Aug 1977

FRN

POLISARIO/SPLA rebels

Mauritania

12 Dec 1977

30 May 1978

RUS

Somalian army and WSLF

Ethiopia

31 Dec 1977

9 Mar 1978

FRN

FROLINAT

Chad

28 Apr 1978

16 May 1980

FRN

Congolese rebels (FLNC)

Zaire

19 May 1978

22 Jun 1978

RUS

PRC

Vietnam

1 Jan 1979

1 Jun 1982

CHN

DRV

DRV

17 Feb 1979

17 Mar 1979

FRN

Bokassa regime

CAR/CAE

20 Sep 1979

21 Sep 1979

RUS

Mujahideen rebels

Afghanistan

25 Dec 1979

15 Feb 1989

UKG

Argentina

Argentina

25 Apr 1982

14 Jun 1982

USA

Shiite & Druze opposition, Syria

Lebanon

29 Sep 1982

26 Feb 1984

FRN

Libya & GUNT/FAP rebels

Chad

9 Aug 1983

9 Nov 1984

USA

New Jewel/PRG regime

Grenada

25 Oct 1983

12 Dec 1983

CHN

DRV

DRV

2 Apr 1984

12 Jul 1984

FRN

Libya & GUNT/FAP rebels

Chad

16 Feb 1986

11 Sep 1987

USA

Libyan govt (Qaddafi)

Libya

23 Mar 1986

27 Mar 1986

USA

Nicaraguan govt (Sandinista)

Honduras

17 Mar 1988

31 Mar 1988

USA

Panamanian govt (Noriega)

Panama

11 May 1989

20 Dec 1989

USA

Panamanian govt (Noriega)

Panama

20 Dec 1989

31 Jan 1990

RUS

Azerbaijani Popular Front

Azerbaijan

20 Jan 1990

1 Feb 1990

USA

Iraqi government

Saudi Arabia

14 Aug 1990

28 Feb 1991

USA

Iraqi government

Kuwait

16 Jan 1991

28 Feb 1991

USA

Iraqi government

Iraq

6 Apr 1991

19 Mar 2003

FRN

Habre rebels

Chad

1 Dec 1991

7 Jan 1992

USA

Iraqi government

Iraq

27 Aug 1992

19 Mar 2003

USA

warring clans

Somalia

3 Dec 1992

4 May 1993

USA

Somali National Alliance

Somalia

4 May 1993

31 Dec 1993

RUS

rebels in breakaway republic

Russia/Chechnya

1 Jan 1994

30 Apr 1996

USA

Haitian military regime

Haiti

19 Sep 1994

31 Mar 1995

USA

Iraqi government

Kuwait

14 Oct 1994

21 Dec 1994

CHN

Taiwan

Taiwan Strait

21 Jul 1995

25 Mar 1996

USA

Bosnian Serbs

Bosnia

30 Aug 1995

21 Sep 1995

FRN

mercenaries/coup leaders

Comoros

15 Sep 1995

15 Oct 1995

USA

China

Taiwan

8 Mar 1996

25 Mar 1996

FRN

army mutineers/rioting soldiers

CAR

23 May 1996

2 Jun 1997

USA

Iraqi government

Kuwait

3 Sep 1996

19 Mar 2003

USA

Iraqi government

Iraq

1 Feb 1998

20 Dec 1998

USA

Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

Yugoslavia

24 Mar 1999

10 Jun 1999

(p.136) (p.137) (p.138) (p.139)

Table A2. Operational Definitions of Political Objectives

Remove Foreign Regime

Military force is employed with the intention of removing a foreign regime from power. The intervening state may overthrow and replace a foreign government itself, fight alongside insurgent groups that seek to replace the regime in power, or support foreign invasions by other states attempting to seize power.

Maintain Foreign Regime Authority

Military force is employed in an attempt to preserve the governing authority of an incumbent regime or the existing political institutions in another state. This includes both operations to assist a foreign government with the elimination of a domestic insurgent threat and operations to defend a foreign government against an external threat. This category should also be chosen if the intervening state is attempting to establish and then maintain the political authority of a particular regime or create particular political institutions in a state (i.e., state-building). Military operations do not have to seek the preservation of any particular incumbent leader to be considered interventions for the maintenance of regime authority. Foreign regime building and maintenance may follow, but should be distinguished from the use of force to remove a foreign regime from power. Cases should be coded as defense of territory, rather than maintenance of political authority, if a piece of land, rather than political authority over an entire nation, is in dispute.

Maintain Empire

Military force is employed in an attempt to reassert or maintain the intervening state’s own political authority over territory claimed as national homeland by another ethnic group.

Acquire or Defend Territory

Military force is employed to defend, acquire, or reclaim territory. The state may intervene to defend the territory of an ally from an external threat, help an ally acquire territory or reassert authority over previously held territory, or seize territory for itself.

Policy Change

Military force is employed in an attempt to coerce an incumbent regime, group, or leader into changing specific policies (foreign or domestic) or behaviors. Although many conflicts stem from policy disputes, the primary political objective of an intervention is only policy change when the intervening state wants the targeted adversary to change an objectionable policy of its own accord.

Social Protection and Order

Military force is used to protect civilians from violence and/or other human rights abuses; restore social order in a situation of unrest (e.g. violent protests, rioting, looting); or to suppress violence between armed groups within another state. “Peacekeeping” operations that are actually intended to prop up an incumbent regime or maintain empire should not be coded as social protection and order operations. Similarly, “humanitarian” operations in which military force is used in an attempt to coerce the incumbent government into changing the way it is treating a minority group within its borders should be coded as policy change operations.

(p.140)