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Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia$
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Robert J. Barro and Jong-Wha Lee

Print publication date: 2011

Print ISBN-13: 9780199753987

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2011

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199753987.001.0001

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Understanding Business Cycle Synchronization: Is Inflation Targeting Paving the Way to Asian Monetary Union?

Understanding Business Cycle Synchronization: Is Inflation Targeting Paving the Way to Asian Monetary Union?

Chapter:
(p.89) 4 Understanding Business Cycle Synchronization: Is Inflation Targeting Paving the Way to Asian Monetary Union?
Source:
Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia
Author(s):

Andrew K. Rose

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199753987.003.0004

This empirical chapter is concerned with the determination of business cycle synchronization. The chapter focuses in particular on the role of monetary regimes. Inflation targeting seems to have a small but positive effect on the synchronization of business cycles; countries that target inflation seem to have cycles that move more closely with foreign cycles. Monetary union also has a positive effect on business cycle synchronization, and in turn is more sustainable with greater synchronization. This suggests that a regime of inflation targeting can be useful in easing the transition towards monetary union, above and beyond any of its intrinsic merits.

Keywords:   GDP, output, bilateral, empirical, data, insulation, regime, monetary, fixed, union

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