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Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth
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Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

James Forder

Abstract

The story of the history of the Phillips curve up to the 1980s is reconsidered. It is argued that none of the principal components of conventional stories is correct. Phillips did not discover the negative relation of wage change (or inflation) and unemployment—that was well known long before him, and better analysed by several of his contemporaries. Samuelson and Solow did not present or advocate a ‘tradeoff interpretation’ of the curve. Almost none of the econometrics of the 1960s concerned exploration or refinement of the relation, and practically no one from that period saw the Phillips cu ... More

Keywords: A. W. H. Phillips, Phillips curve, history of economics, expectations, post-war macroeconomics, monetarism, monetarist counter-revolution, Keynesianism

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2014 Print ISBN-13: 9780199683659
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: November 2014 DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

James Forder, author
Fellow and Tutor in Political Economy, Balliol College, University of Oxford