Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
The Politics of UncertaintySustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism$
Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content.

Andreas Schedler

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780199680320

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: September 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199680320.001.0001

Show Summary Details
Page of

PRINTED FROM OXFORD SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.oxfordscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Oxford University Press, 2018. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use (for details see www.oxfordscholarship.com/page/privacy-policy).date: 21 January 2019

The Struggle over Electoral Uncertainty

The Struggle over Electoral Uncertainty

(p.213) 7 The Struggle over Electoral Uncertainty
The Politics of Uncertainty

Andreas Schedler

Oxford University Press

How can we explain variations in authoritarian electoral uncertainty? This chapter traces the short-term impact both actor strategies and contextual variables bear on three objective measures of electoral uncertainty: margins of electoral victory, the control of legislative supermajorities by the incumbent, and party alternation in power. It confirms the power of actor strategies. Hegemonic regimes often secure their wide margins of victory through exclusion. Fraud and censorship are effective electoral weapons of competitive regimes. They serve to inflate margins of victory, defend legislative supermajorities, and avoid alternation in power. Both regime types are sensitive to challenges from below and within and both reap substantive short-term benefits from opposition boycotts. The chapter also corroborates the weight of contextual factors. Proportional election rules and subnational elections strengthen the opposition, while weak legislatures strengthen the incumbent. Economic variables show paradoxical effects: national wealth renders hegemonic regimes more secure, competitive regimes more insecure.

Keywords:   electoral uncertainty, competitiveness, margins of victory, constitutional majorities, alternation in power

Oxford Scholarship Online requires a subscription or purchase to access the full text of books within the service. Public users can however freely search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter.

Please, subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian.

To troubleshoot, please check our FAQs , and if you can't find the answer there, please contact us .