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Food Security and Sociopolitical Stability$
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Christopher B. Barrett

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780199679362

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679362.001.0001

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The Future of the Global Food Economy: Scenarios for Supply, Demand, and Prices

The Future of the Global Food Economy: Scenarios for Supply, Demand, and Prices

Chapter:
(p.35) 2 The Future of the Global Food Economy: Scenarios for Supply, Demand, and Prices
Source:
Food Security and Sociopolitical Stability
Author(s):

Mark W. Rosegrant

Simla Tokgoz

Prapti Bhandary

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679362.003.0002

Several food price spikes since 2007 have motivated researchers and policymakers to weigh the factors behind high food prices, their implications for long-term food security, and the connection between food prices and civil conflict. We examine global food system dynamics to 2025 through scenarios of alternative futures for food supply and demand using the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) global food model. We analyze scenarios with increased investment in agricultural research and/or reduced post-harvest losses. The results indicated that increased investments can significantly reduce projected food prices relative to the baseline, with resulting improved food consumption and reductions in the number of malnourished children. Large reductions in post-harvest food losses also contribute to lower food prices, higher food availability, and improved food security, although the impacts are not as positive as for increased agricultural research.

Keywords:   food prices, food supply and demand, food security, agricultural research, post-harvest food losses, civil conflict

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