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The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China$
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Shenggen Fan, Ravi Kanbur, Shang-Jin Wei, and Xiaobo Zhang

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780199678204

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: December 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199678204.001.0001

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Will China continue to prosper?

Will China continue to prosper?

6 Will China continue to prosper?
The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China

Simon Cox

Oxford University Press

This chapter considers the prospects for China’s future growth. China’s per capita growth is expected to slow down as it narrows the gap with the USA. From an average of 9.3 per cent over the years 2001 to 2010 growth will slow to about 7.3 per cent on average from 2011 to 2020. Sceptics cite a variety of reasons to doubt this projection. They claim that in the past decade China’s growth has been flattered by excessive rates of investment. In the decade ahead, they expect China’s demographics to prove less favourable. Finally, as China advances, it will fall into the so-called ‘middle-income trap’ that has interrupted the progress of other once-promising countries. The chapter examines each of these dangers in turn.

Keywords:   Chinese economy, economic growth, economic policy, investment, middle-income trap

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