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The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China$
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Shenggen Fan, Ravi Kanbur, Shang-Jin Wei, and Xiaobo Zhang

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780199678204

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: December 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199678204.001.0001

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What challenges are demographic transition bringing to China’s growth?

What challenges are demographic transition bringing to China’s growth?

61 What challenges are demographic transition bringing to China’s growth?
The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China

Fang Cai

Oxford University Press

China’s unprecedented economic growth since the late 1970s can be recognized as a typical dual economic development hypothesized by Arthur Lewis (1954), during which process mass numbers of labourers migrated from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors, from rural to urban areas, and from central and western to coastal regions. This chapter shows that the demographic dividend that fuelled China’s growth will soon disappear. Thus, China must prepare for a fundamental transformation from dual economic growth to neoclassical growth, which requires the substitution of growth sources and reforms of social and economic systems.

Keywords:   Chinese economy, economic growth, dual economic development, demographic dividend, demographic change

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