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The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China$
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Shenggen Fan, Ravi Kanbur, Shang-Jin Wei, and Xiaobo Zhang

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780199678204

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: December 2014

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199678204.001.0001

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China is headed for a financial crisis and a sharp slowdown

China is headed for a financial crisis and a sharp slowdown

Chapter:
(p.212) 32 China is headed for a financial crisis and a sharp slowdown
Source:
The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China
Author(s):

Nouriel Roubini

Adam Wolfe

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199678204.003.0033

This chapter predicts that China is heading towards an investment bust from which its financial system is unlikely to escape unscathed. Consumption is expected to hold up rather well through this process, but it will not accelerate by the 1.5 percentage points needed to maintain steady headline GDP growth for every percentage point that investment is expected to slow. The labour market will be hit by a slowdown in construction activity, and high-net worth households are likely to face negative wealth effects from falling property values. While government policies and increased subsidies may be able to offset some of these effects, Chinese GDP growth is expected to slip to 4–6 per cent at some point, not too long after 2013.

Keywords:   Chinese economy, economic forecasts, investments, financial system, consumption, GDP growth, economic growth

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