International macro-economic impact of domestic change
This chapter examines the factors that have driven the changes in Chinese savings, investment, and current account surpluses through the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries; considers recent developments in Chinese economic policy and structure; and seeks insights for future developments from this analysis. The post-2011 changes in China’s macro-economic development are so large that they amount to a new model of economic growth. If sustained under the influence of growing labour scarcity and government policy it would see immense structural change and the moderation of aggregate growth of output from an average of nearly 10 per cent in the 33 years to 2011 to around 7–8 per cent.
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