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The Arab SpringPathways of Repression and Reform$
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Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynolds

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780199660063

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2015

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199660063.001.0001

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Lineages of Repression

Lineages of Repression

Chapter:
(p.40) 2 Lineages of Repression
Source:
The Arab Spring
Author(s):

Jason Brownlee

Tarek Masoud

Andrew Reynolds

Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199660063.003.0003

This chapters offers the authors’ own explanations of uprisings against authoritarian rule and outcomes in the Arab world since 2011. It develops a political explanation of uprising outcomes from the Arab Spring. First, it seeks to account for variance: from the dramatic overthrow of Ben Ali in Tunisia to the political endurance of Assad in Syria. Second, the chapter steps back from proximate variables, such as the diffusion of social networking tools and the posture of the army, to examine historical regime characteristics that determined the relative balance of power between incumbents and oppositionists. It argues that military choices were at the heart of determining whether tensions and protests would reach the level of revolutions in a given country. But those behaviors were conditioned by other deeper variables: oil rents and hereditary rule.

Keywords:   oil, military, authoritarianism, revolutions, protest

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