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Quitting CertaintiesA Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief$
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Michael G. Titelbaum

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199658305

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199658305.001.0001

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The modeling framework and what models represent

The modeling framework and what models represent

(p.30) (p.31) 3 The modeling framework and what models represent
Quitting Certainties

Michael G. Titelbaum

Oxford University Press

This chapter presents the core formal elements of the Certainty-Loss Framework (CLF). It therefore supplies the basic formal materials from which everything in the later chapters will be built. The chapter also provides CLF with a standard interpretation, explaining how each formal element represents an aspect of an agent’s doxastic state. Among CLF’s core constraints are Kolmogorov’s axioms, requiring agents’ degrees of belief to satisfy the probability calculus. This chapter also introduces Conditionalization, the traditional Bayesian norm for updating degrees of belief over time. Finally, the chapter illustrates CLF by presenting a model that analyzes the rational requirements on an agent in a fairly simple story.

Keywords:   probability, conditionalization, Bayesianism, modeling, Kolmogorov, degrees of belief, Certainty-Loss Framework

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