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Quitting CertaintiesA Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief$
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Michael G. Titelbaum

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780199658305

Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2013

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199658305.001.0001

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A few loose ends

A few loose ends

(p.284) (p.285) 12 A few loose ends
Quitting Certainties

Michael G. Titelbaum

Oxford University Press

This book has argued that a traditional Bayesian framework using Conditionalization as its updating constraint cannot adequately model stories involving memory loss and context-sensitivity, because of the rational loss of certainties in such stories. The book has advocated a new modeling framework, the Certainty-Loss Framework (CLF), as a replacement. This chapter first explains why the rational requirements in stories involving memory loss and context-sensitivity cannot be settled by Dutch Book arguments. Next the chapter explains why the difficulties traditional Bayesian frameworks have with certainty loss could not have been solved by moving to a framework based on Jeffrey Conditionalization. Finally, the chapter explains why cases involving certainty loss due to the acquisition of evidential defeaters are not best modeled using CLF.

Keywords:   certainty, memory loss, context-sensitivity, Bayesianism, Certainty-Loss Framework, conditionalization, Dutch Books, Jeffrey Conditionalization, defeaters

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