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Quitting Certainties
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Quitting Certainties: A Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief

Michael G. Titelbaum

Abstract

Subjective Bayesianism is one of the most popular tools of contemporary epistemology, using probability mathematics to provide comprehensive rational constraints both for an agent’s degrees of belief at a given time and for the evolution of those degrees of belief over time. Yet Conditionalization (the traditional Bayesian updating rule) has trouble modeling cases involving memory loss and context-sensitivity, because these cases involve the loss of certainties over time. This book proposes a new Bayesian modeling framework, the Certainty-Loss Framework (or CLF), that yields correct verdicts a ... More

Keywords: Subjective Bayesianism, Bayesian epistemology, memory loss, context-sensitivity, self-locating belief, rationality, degrees of belief, probability, normativity, modeling, conditionalization, Certainty-Loss Framework

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2012 Print ISBN-13: 9780199658305
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: May 2013 DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199658305.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Michael G. Titelbaum, author
University of Wisconsin-Madison