China's Growth Model: Choices and Consequences
China has maintained a phenomenal rate of growth over the last two decades (until very recently), with annual GDP growth averaging about 10 percent. What accounts for this impressive growth performance? How long is this growth pattern likely to last and what are the risks? This chapter attempts to address these questions by providing a critical evaluation of the combination of macroeconomic and structural policies that has resulted in high rates of growth in recent years. The main argument is that the set of policies that has generated impressive headline GDP growth masks a number of problems that have led to unbalanced growth and portend serious risks for the future. It then discusses the main elements of a reform agenda that would ensure the sustainability of China's growth, improve the economic welfare of its citizens in a commensurate manner, and make the economy more resilient to shocks.
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