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Commodity Prices and Development
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Commodity Prices and Development

Roman Grynberg and Samantha Newton

Abstract

More than fifty developing countries depend on three or fewer commodities for more than half of their exports. In fact, reliance on only a single commodity for a large share of export earnings is quite common in these countries, exposing them to the risk of export earnings instability as a result of price shocks and, perhaps even more significantly, falling purchasing power of exports over the long run in the face of the declining real price of the commodity in question. The problems faced by commodity-dependent developing countries are formidable. Although diversification is the most appropri ... More

Keywords: commodity dependent, developing countries, export earnings, secular decline, diversification, price shocks, real price

Bibliographic Information

Print publication date: 2007 Print ISBN-13: 9780199234707
Published to Oxford Scholarship Online: January 2008 DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199234707.001.0001

Authors

Affiliations are at time of print publication.

Roman Grynberg, editor
Manager, Economic Governance programme, Pacific Islands Forum

Samantha Newton, editor
Consultant, Economic Affairs Division, Commonwealth Secretariat

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Contents

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Introduction

Roman Grynberg and Samantha Newton

Part I The Issue of Declining Commodity Prices

1 The Problems of Commodity Dependence

Mohammad A. Razzaque, Philip Osafa-Kwaako, and Roman Grynberg

2 Secular Decline in Relative Commodity Prices: A Brief Review of the Literature

Mohammad A. Razzaque, Philip Osafa‐Kwaako, and Roman Grynberg

3 Long‐Run Trend in the Relative Price: Empirical Estimation for Individual Commodities

Mohammad A Razzaque, Philip Osafa‐Kwaako, and Roman Grynberg

Part II The Implications of Declining Commodity Prices

6 Estimating Foreign Exchange Loss due to Declining Commodity Prices

Mohammad A. Razzaque, Philip Osafa‐Kwaako, and Roman Grynberg

7 Marginalization of LDCs and Small Vulnerable States in World Trade

Bijit Bora, Roman Grynberg, and Mohammad A. Razzaque

Part III Mitigating the Impacts for Commodity Dependent Countries

8 Instruments for Addressing Commodity Price Behaviour

Mohammad A. Razzaque, Philip Osafa‐Kwaako, and Roman Grynberg

9 Commodity Prices and the Debt Relief Initiative

Mohammad A. Razzaque, Philip Osafa-Kwaako, and Roman Grynberg

10 Aid Flows and Commodity Prices

Mohammad A. Razzaque, Philip Osafa-Kwaako, and Roman Grynberg

End Matter